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Buhari’s Day One Decision (2)

Amongst OPEC countries, Nigeria still sells petrol at the highest price to its citizens while it pays the lowest minimum wage

Kennedy Emetulu

While all this was happening, the United States led a Western conspiracy to deprive us of arms to fight Boko Haram under the spurious excuse that our soldiers have a poor human rights record in the fight against Boko Haram when all the verifiable evidence of atrocities we could see were by the same Boko Haram. It was part of the irony of the situation that while America and her allies were denying Nigeria arms to fight Boko Haram under the excuse that the Nigerian Army did not pass their human rights test, they were falling over themselves to supply arms to murderous elements in Syria. Of course, without arms from those we consider our allies against terrorism, even with our money, the Jonathan government was forced to look to the East, China and the black market. In the meantime, the full-scale demonisation of President Goodluck Jonathan was being spearheaded by Hillary Clinton. To compliment that, Mrs Clinton and the Obama Administration developed a full-scale romance with the APC and Buhari. They recruited Obama’s ally and campaign guru, David Axelrod and his AKPD Message and Media to run Buhari’s campaign and throughout the campaign, Senator John Kerry was overseeing things and hopping down to Nigeria to ensure that nothing derails the plan to get Buhari to Aso Rock. The British were equally showing their own support through Tony Blair and Chatham House. To cut a long story short, the plan worked perfectly and Buhari is sitting pretty now in Aso Rock.

Alright, I’m not so doe-eyed about international relations not to recognise that it is not a morality game where you expect others to look after your interest or to not shaft you, if they have the opportunity to. So, really, I have no issue with the APC getting foreign support, including Arab money, to win the election. I mean, we all can play cynics till the cows come home, but it won’t advance the cause of our nation.

The bottom line for me is that whoever gets to Aso Rock, no matter how you manage to get yourself there, you have to serve the interest of the Nigerian people and nobody else. That is why I urge President Muhammadu Buhari to adopt his statement that he belongs to everybody and belongs to no one in his international dealings too, because some of us are already seeing the vultures hovering over our country while we celebrate a new dawn.

We have watched them trot the London-Washington-Abuja routes jauntily throughout these times and we know from their history with us that nothing good will come from this. The West and their agents are interested in two key areas and in both areas, while they are keen to present themselves as helpers, history has proven that they are likely to lead us into a deep hole.

The first is their interest in our mineral resources, most crucially our oil. Messrs David Cameron, Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson seem to be the initial pointsmen of the Bretton Woods institutions in this regard. They’ve been harping on about the need for Buhari to act fast and remove the petroleum subsidy and Buhari himself has not hidden the pressure he’s under when he scurried over to London to see Cameron in the heat of the fuel crisis, a few days before his swearing-in as president.

The orchestration is on and very soon they will blanket the media with reasons why Buhari has to act now. Obviously, they are banking on the goodwill the president has now amongst Nigerians. They believe if he does it now, he will not suffer the backlash President Jonathan suffered in 2012 when he attempted it. Buhari must not listen to them.

We know that the subsidy regime as presently constituted and as presently implemented is a racket and a cesspool of corruption, but ordinary Nigerians need not bear the cost of cleaning it up. Buhari’s newfound Western friends may have convinced him that the economic case for removing subsidy is perfect, but he needs to know that the political case for it at the moment is very bad. Amongst OPEC countries, Nigeria still sells petrol at the highest price to its citizens while it pays the lowest minimum wage.

This is a country without social safety nets and social security and in terms of any kind of social benefit, the subsidy is the only thing we can say they enjoy. So, why should we be removing subsidy when it is obvious that the economy of Nigeria is too weak and disposable income too low for Nigerians to do without it? Can Nigeria afford to be exposed to externalities with the poor state of our local industries? The negative multiplier effects of this decision can only be imagined, especially the effect on wages and general inflation.

It simply won’t be nice. If Buhari does it now without consultation and without getting into conversation with Nigerians with a view to convincing them at every level why he needs to do this, including providing good palliative measures, their goodwill for him will vanish in the twinkle of an eye and it would be difficult for him to survive the backlash intact.

If he must take that decision, he shouldn’t do it under pressure from these foreign interests. He must think it through deeply, have that conversation with the Nigerian people and together reach a compromise. But there is a basic answer to all this and it’s one that must be addressed on two fronts. Buhari should work with the national legislature to once and for all pass the Petroleum Industry Bill and mobilise the private sector to build new refineries and refurbish the existing ones to begin full internal refining of all our petrol needs.

While that is being done, he can put the searchlight on the subsidy payment and management system to get to the root of the scam. Anything short of these would be skirting the issue. In fact, if he listens to his Western friends now and go for the subsidy removal immediately, once it all comes crashing down as it surely will, they would be the first to throw him under the bus. In any case, this whole foreign interest in our oil is not the purpose of this piece.

I just have to mention it to signal the fact that we are already seeing the hands of Esau everywhere. The second area of Western interest is tied to the above and it is our national security. Yes, their role in our national security is highly questionable. The fact that the West totally refused to help with Boko Haram raises huge suspicion about their role in all this, especially with reports that the Boko Haram people are getting supplies and sophisticated weapons from people who are/were allies of the United States in Africa.

We know also that the West is not happy with the great economic and political relationship Nigeria under Jonathan has been enjoying with the Chinese. There are reasons to believe that the US and some of its allies are sponsoring instability in areas this can disrupt Chinese economic interests.

This seems to be the real purpose of the United States African Command (AFRICOM) in Africa. The real reason the United States didn’t like Jonathan was because he refused to sign away our sovereignty to the United States through AFRICOM.

Though his government succeeded in outflanking the United States diplomatically by cutting off France from the Western conspiracy after Charlie Hebdo (which was the reason Chad, Niger and Cameroon finally began to pull their weight as part of the multinational force after being whipped in line by France) leading to the success against Boko Haram we are celebrating today, it still was not enough to keep him in Aso Rock.

America and the West have decided on their candidate and he is Muhammadu Buhari. Now, I’m a political realist. I do realise that whatever we say, the West did not invade us and impose a president on us. If they did anything, they did it by using or compromising our national institutions to achieve that. If the Jonathan government didn’t see it coming or if they saw it coming and did nothing to forestall it, I shouldn’t be shedding much tears on their behalf.

But I am a Nigerian, a patriot and like me, Muhammadu Buhari is a patriot. A patriot must do what a patriot got to do, no matter how he got to the position that gives him power and legitimacy to make decisions on behalf of the country and the rest of us. So, on no account should Buhari sign anything with the United States on AFRICOM.

President Umaru Yar’Adua almost got lured into it when he visited the White House in December 2007. He had to quickly deny he did. Jonathan simply refused to consider it. But what are we seeing now? We are seeing that amongst those chosen by President Obama to be part of the US Presidential Delegation to the Buhari swearing-in was General David M. Rodriguez, Commander, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM).

This was the same General Rodriguez that led a team of US soldiers down to Nigeria with pomp and pageantry talking tough about helping us to smash Boko Haram and get the Chibok girls back. In the end, they did absolutely nothing.

Buhari has to be careful. If he signs anything with the United States over our national security, he would see that the same spirit that roused Nigerians in 1961 to come out and protest the Anglo- Nigerian Defence Pact is still alive and well. We might fight amongst ourselves over anything in Nigeria, but we will always collectively defend our sovereignty.


•Kennedy Emetulu wrote in from London, UK.

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